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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.